Wpływ PKB i udziału OZE na emisje CO2, efektywność energetyczną oraz wzrost gospodarczy w państwach Unii Europejskiej
Grzegorz Szczubełek
Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych, Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztyniehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2511-7278
Daniel Rzeczkowski
Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych, Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztyniehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8458-5987
Abstrakt
Wzrost gospodarczy i emisja CO2 są silnie powiązane z zużyciem energii. Transformacja energetyczna w kierunku odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) oraz poprawa efektywności energetycznej są najważniejszymi elementami w walce z globalnym ociepleniem. Kraje UE dążą do redukcji emisji CO2 z jednoczesnym wsparciem wzrostu gospodarczego. Konieczne jest jednak zrozumienie, jak poziom PKB i udział OZE wpływają na efektywność energetyczną oraz emisję CO2. Celem artykułu jest analiza wpływu poziomu PKB oraz udziału odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) na emisję CO2, efektywność energetyczną i wzrost gospodarczy w krajach Unii Europejskiej. W badaniu zastosowano modelowanie równań strukturalnych (SEM) z wykorzystaniem metody najmniejszych kwadratów cząstkowych (PLS). Analiza oparta jest na danych pochodzących z Eurostatu, OECD oraz innych źródeł obejmujących lata 2004-2023.
Artykuł stanowi istotny wkład w literaturę ze względu na kompleksową analizę wpływu poziomu PKB i udziału odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) na emisję CO2, z uwzględnieniem efektywności energetycznej i urbanizacji jako głównych czynników. Przeprowadzone badanie wykazało, że wysoki poziom PKB w połączeniu z dużym udziałem OZE w miksie energetycznym sprzyja skuteczniejszej redukcji emisji CO2. Ponadto urbanizacja ma zróżnicowany wpływ na wzrost gospodarczy, w zależności od poziomu PKB i udziału OZE. Wskazuje to na potrzebę uwzględnienia specyfiki kraju podczas formułowania polityki energetycznej. Wyniki dostarczają decydentom politycznym wskazówek do kształtowania strategii energetycznych i środowiskowych w państwach Unii Europejskiej.
Słowa kluczowe:
emisje CO2, odnawialne źródła energii (OZE), modelowanie równań strukturalnych (SEM)Bibliografia
Acaravci, A., & Ozturk, I. (2010). On the Relationship Between Energy Consumption, CO2 Eemissions and Economic Growth in Europe. Energy, 35(12), 5412-5420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.07.009.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Amara, D., Qiao, J., & Zada, M. (2024). How to Reconcile the Climate Change Issue with Economic Growth? Spatial Dual Mediating Effects of Carbon Emissions and Foreign Investment. Journal of Cleaner Production, 411. 137285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137285.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Apergis, N., & Payne, J.E. (2014). Renewable Energy, Output, CO2 Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Prices in Central America: Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction Model. Energy Economics, 42, 226-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.01.003.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Bakry, W., Mallik, G., Nghiem, X.-H., Sinha, A., & Vo, X.V. (2023). Is Green Finance Really “Green”? Examining the Long-Run Relationship Between Green Finance, Renewable Energy and Environmental Performance in Developing Countries. Renewable Energy, 208, 341-355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.202.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Belaïd, F., & Mikayilov, J.I. (2024). Closing the Efficiency Gap: Insights Into Curbing the Direct Rebound Effect of Residential Electricity Consumption in Saudi Arabia. Energy Economics, 135, 107647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107647.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Ben-Ahmed, K., & Ben-Salha, O. (2024). Assessing the Spillover Effects of Various Forms of Energy on CO2 Emissions – An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model. Heliyon, 10(e31083). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31083.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Barkat, K., Alsamara, M., & Mimouni, K. (2024). Beyond Economic Growth Goals: Can Foreign Aid Mitigate Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Developing Countries? Journal of Cleaner Production, 471, 143411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143411.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Bolat, C.K., Soytas, U., Akinoglu, B., & Nazlioglu, S. (2023). Is There a Macroeconomic Carbon Rebound Effect in EU ETS? Energy Economics, 125, 106879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106879.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Dissanayake, H., Perera, N., Abeykoon, S., Samson, D., Jayathilaka, R., & Jayasinghe, M. (2023). Nexus between Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Global Economies. PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287579.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Dimitropoulos, J. (2007). Energy Productivity Improvements and the Rebound Effect: An Overview of the State of Knowledge. Energy Policy, 35(12), 6354-6363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.07.028.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Dogan, E., & Inglesi-Lotz, R. (2024). Analyzing the Effects of Real Income and Biomass Energy Consumption on Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions: Empirical Evidence from the Panel of Biomass-Consuming Countries. Energy, 138, 721-727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.136.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Gershon, O., Asafo, J.K., Nyarko-Asomani, A., & Koranteng, E.F. (2024). Investigating the Nexus of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in Selected African Countries. Energy Strategy Reviews, 51, 101269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101269.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Gbadeyan, O.J., Muthivhi, J., Linganiso, L.Z., & Deenadayalu, N. (2024). Decoupling Economic Growth from Carbon Emissions: A Transition Toward Low-Carbon Energy Systems – A Critical Review. Clean Technologies, 6, 1076-1113. https://doi.org/10.3390/cleantechnol6030054.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Grodzicki, T., & Jankiewicz, M. (2022). The Impact of Renewable Energy and Urbanization on CO2 Emissions in Europe: Spatio-Temporal Approach. Environmental Development, 44, 100755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2022.100755.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Karakaya, E., Alataş, S., Erkara, E., Mert, B., Akdoğan, T., & Hiçyılmaz, B. (2024). The Rebound Effect of Material and Energy Efficiency for the EU and Its Major Trading Partners. Energy Economics, 134, 107623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107623.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Khan, M.K., Trinh, H.H., Ullah, I., & Ullah, S. (2022). Sustainable Economic Activities, Climate Change, and Carbon Risk: An International Evidence. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 9642-9664. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01842-x.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Kinyar, A., & Bothongo, K. (2024). The Impact of Renewable Energy, Eco-Innovation, and GDP Growth on CO2 Emissions: Pathways to the UK’s Net Zero Target. Journal of Environmental Management, 368, 122226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122226.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Liddle, B., & Parker, S. (2024). Another Look At ‘Peak and Decline’ Carbon Emissions Countries: Which Ones Have Decoupled Per Capita Emissions from GDP and How? Global Environmental Change Advances, 3, 100012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100012.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Liu, H., Wong, W.-K., Cong, P.T., Nassani, A.A., Haffar, M., & Abu-Rumman, A. (2024). Linkage Among Urbanization, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions. Panel Data Analysis for China Using ARDL Model. Fuel, 332, 126122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2022.126122.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Lu, F., Ma, F., & Feng, L. (2024). Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: New Evidence from GDP Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 205, 123464. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123464.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Matraeva, L., Vasiutina, E., Korolkova, N., Maloletko, A., & Kaurova, O. (2024). Identifying Rebound Effects and Formulating More Sustainable Energy Efficiency Policy: A Global Review and Framework. Energy Research & Social Science, 85, 102402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102402.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Mehmood, U. (2021). Contribution of Renewable Energy Towards Environmental Quality: The Role of Education to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals in G11 Countries. Renewable Energy, 178, 600-607. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.118.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Mongo, M., Belaďd, F., & Ramdani, B. (2024). The Effects of Environmental Innovations on CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Europe. Environmental Science & Policy, 132, 123-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2024.12.004. Google Scholar
Mohsin, A.K.M., Gerschberger, M., Plasch, M., Ahmed, S.F., Rahman, A., & Rashed, M. (2024). Examining the Synergy of Green Supply Chain Practices, Circular Economy, and Economic Growth in Mitigating Carbon Emissions: Evidence from EU Countries. Journal of Environmental Management, 371, 123109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123109.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Murshed, M., Apergis, N., Alam, M.S., Khan, U., & Mahmud, S. (2022). The Impacts of Renewable Energy, Financial Inclusivity, Globalization, Economic Growth, and Urbanization on Carbon Productivity: Evidence from Net Moderation and Mediation Effects of Energy Efficiency Gains. Renewable Energy, 196, 824-838. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.07.012.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Naeem, M.A., Appiah, M., Taden, J., Amoasi, R., & Gyamfi, B.A. (2024). Transitioning to Clean Energy: Assessing the Impact of Renewable Energy, Bio-Capacity and Access to Clean Fuel on Carbon Emissions in OECD Economies. Energy Economics, 127, 107091. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107091.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Naz, F., Tanveer, A., Karim, S., & Dowling, M. (2024). The Decoupling Dilemma: Examining Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in Emerging Economic Blocs. Energy Economics, 138, 107848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107848.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Rajabi, M.M. (2022). Dilemmas of Energy Efficiency: A Systematic Review of the Rebound Effect and Attempts to Curb Energy Consumption. Energy Research & Social Science, 89, 102661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102661.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Onofrei, M., Vatamanu, A.F., & Cigu, E. (2022). The Relationship Between Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in EU Countries: A Cointegration Analysis. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 934885. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.934885.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Qin, J., Ou, D., Yang, Z., Gao, X., Zhong, Y., Yang, W., Wu, J., Yang, Y., Xia, J., Liu, Y., Sun, J., & Deng, O. (2024). Synergizing Economic Growth and Carbon Emission Reduction in China: A Path to Coupling the MFLP and PLUS Models for Optimizing the Territorial Spatial Functional Pattern. Science of the Total Environment, 929, 171926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171926.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Quan, Z., Xu, X., Jiang, J., Wang, W., & Gao, S. (2024). Uncovering the Drivers of Ecological Footprints: A STIRPAT Analysis of Urbanization, Economic Growth, and Energy Sustainability in OECD Countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 475, 143686. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143686.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Shi, B., Zhu, G., & Li, N. (2024). Does Economic Growth Targets Setting Lead to Carbon Emissions? An Empirical Study from China. Journal of Environmental Management, 368, 122084. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122084.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Sikder, M., Wang, C., Rahman, M.M., & Alola, A.A. (2024). Green Logistics and Circular Economy in Alleviating CO2 Emissions: Does Waste Generation and GDP Growth Matter in EU Countries? Journal of Cleaner Production, 449, 141708. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141708.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Soytas, U., Sari, R., & Ewing, B.T. (2007). Energy Consumption, Income, and Carbon Emissions in the United States. Ecological Economics, 62(4), 482-489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.07.009.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Sorrell, S., Dimitropoulos, J., & Sommerville, M. (2009). Empirical Estimates of the Direct Rebound Effect: A Review. Energy Policy, 37(4), 1356-1371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.026.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Tian, J., Abbasi, K.R., Radulescu, M., Jaradat, M., & Barbulescu, M. (2024). Reevaluating Energy Progress: An In-Depth Policy Framework of Energy, Urbanization, and Economic Development. Energy Policy, 191, 114196.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Tong, K. (2024). Urbanization Moderates the Transitional Linkages Between Energy Resource Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Socio-Economic and Human Development: Insights from Subnational Analyses in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 476, 143776. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143776.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Wang, Q., Guo, J., & Li, R. (2024). Better Renewable with Economic Growth without Carbon Growth: A Comparative Study of Impact of Turbine, Photovoltaics, and Hydropower on Economy and Carbon Emission. Journal of Cleaner Production, 426, 139046. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139046.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Wang, J.C., Qu, M., Xu, T.P., & Choi, S. (2024). The Dynamic Nexus Between Economic Growth, Renewable Energy Use, Urbanization, Industrialization, Tourism, Green Supply Chain Management, and CO2. Heliyon, 10(2024), e38061. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38061.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Yang, L., & Li, Z. (2024). Technology Advance and the Carbon Dioxide Emission in China: Empirical Research Based on the Rebound Effect. Energy Policy, 132, 123-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.11.020. Google Scholar
Zhang, Z., Karimi, M.S., Weerasinghe, N.M., Bilan, Y., & Shahzad, U. (2024). Interplay Between Economic Progress, Carbon Emissions and Energy Prices on Green Energy Adoption: Evidence from USA and Germany. Renewable Energy, 232, 121038. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121038.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Ziaei, S.M. (2025). Public Spending on Energy Innovations and CO2 Impacts: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries. Green Technologies and Sustainability, 3, 100137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.grets.2024.100137.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Zhang, Y., & Yang, Y. (2024). Can the Resource and Environmental Dilemma Due to Water-Energy-Carbon Constraints Be Solved in the Process of New Urbanization? Sustainable Cities and Society, 114, 105748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.105748.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Zhu, H., Yue, J., & Wang, H. (2024). Will China’s Urbanization Support Its Carbon Peak Goal? A Forecast Analysis Based on the Improved GCAM. Ecological Indicators, 163, 112072. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112072.
Crossref
Google Scholar
Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych, Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2511-7278
Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych, Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8458-5987
Licencja

Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Użycie niekomercyjne – Bez utworów zależnych 4.0 Międzynarodowe.
Każdy Autor składa oświadczenie, że praca nie była wcześniej publikowana (pod tym samym lub innym tytułem, nie stanowi również części innej publikacji) oraz nie narusza praw autorskich innych osób. Jednocześnie Autor przenosi na wydawcę wyłączne prawo wydania i rozpowszechniania tego utworu drukiem w formie zwartej publikacji czasopisma oraz w formie publikacji elektronicznej.
Czasopismo udostępnione jest na licencji Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND

