Forecasting the number of road accidents in Poland using trend models depending on the days of the week
Piotr Gorzelanczyk
Państwowa Uczelnia Stanisława Staszica w PileAbstract
Every year a very large number of people die on the roads. Although the number decreases year by year, it remains high. The pandemic has reduced the number of road accidents, but the value is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to know on which days the highest number of traffic accidents occur, and to know the forecast of accidents by day of the week for the coming years, so that we can do everything possible to minimize the number of traffic accidents. The purpose of the article is to make a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland according to the day of the week. The research was divided into two parts. The first was the analysis of annual data from the Police statistics on the number of road accidents in Poland in 2000-2021, and on this basis the forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022-2031 was determined. The second part of the research, dealt with monthly data from 2000-2021. Again, the analyzed forecast for the period January 2022 – December 2023 was determined. The results of the study indicate that we can still expect a decline in the number of accidents in the coming years, which is particularly evident when analyzing annual data. It is worth noting that the prevailing pandemic distorts the results obtained. The research was conducted in MS Excel, using selected trend models.
Keywords:
traffic accident,, forecasting, trend models,, days of the weekReferences
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