The Efficiency of Sovereign Debt Markets in the EMU: Truth or Mistruth?
Grzegorz Waszkiewicz
Military University of Technology in Warsawhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8783-6972
Abstract
Ever since the last financial crisis, the efficiency of financial markets has been widely challenged. On the basis of sovereign debt markets in the European Monetary Union (EMU), we tried to contrast some reservations about the market efficiency existing in the literature with findings coming from our empirical analysis of weak-form efficiency. To do so, we first outlined the crux of the efficient market hypothesis. Secondly, we show the main reservations in relation to this concept. Then, after a brief review of outcomes from contributions in this area, we conducted a three-stage empirical procedure that Worthington and Higgs (2006) as well as Borges (2009) had employed to stock markets analysis. Then, the results were evaluated and conclusions were drawn. To sum up, we did confirm the weak-form efficiency on examined sovereign debt markets from the EMU. That suggests that a random process plays a key role in shaping bond yields. Finally, neither theoretical nor practical reservations deflate the weak-form efficiency in the public debt markets of the EMU.
Keywords:
bond yields, disciplinary mechanism, creditors, politicsReferences
Afonso, A., & Strauch, R. (2007). Fiscal Policy Events and Interest Rate Swap Spreads: some Evidence from the EU. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 17(3), 261-276. Google Scholar
Ahdieh, R. (2004). Between Mandate and Market: Contract Transition in the Shadow of the Internationalal Order. Emory Law Journal, 53, 691-762. Google Scholar
Allen, W.A. (2007). The scope and significance of open market operations. In D.G. Mayes, & J. Toporowski (Eds.). Open Market Operations and Financial Markets. London: Routledge. Google Scholar
Balassone, F., Franco, D., & Giordano, R. (2004). Market – induced fiscal discipline. Is there a fall – back solution for rule failure. Roma: Working Paper Series, Bank of Italy. Google Scholar
Beechey, M., Gruen, D., & Vickery, J. (2000). The efficient market hypothesis: a survey. Reserve Bank of Australia, Economic Researches Department, Research Discussion Papers, No. 01. Google Scholar
Borges, M.R. (2009). Random Walk Tests for the Lisbon Stock Market. Applied Economics, 43(5), 631-639. Google Scholar
Buiter, W.H., & Siber, A.C. (2005). How the Eurosystem’s Treatment of Collateral in its Open Market Operations Weakens Fiscal Discipline in the Eurozone. CEPR Discussion Paper, 5387, 1-42. Google Scholar
Charles, A., & Darné, O. (2009). Variance ratio tests of random walk: An overview. Journal of Economic Surveys, 23(3), 503-527. Google Scholar
Chow K.V., & Denning K.C. (1993). A simple multiple variance ratio test. Journal of Econometrics, 58(3), 385-401. Google Scholar
Coeuré, B. (2012). Speech at 12th IMF Annual Forum on Managing Sovereign Risk and Public Debt: Managing Sovereign Debt: A Seismic Shift in demand and Supply Dynamics? Rio de Janeiro, 28-29 June. Google Scholar
Cross, K.H. (2006). Arbitration as a Means of Resolving Sovereign Debt Disputes. 17 American Review of International Arbitration, p. 335-389. Google Scholar
Deburn, X., Ostry, D.J., Willems, T., & Wyplosz, Ch. (2019). Public debt sustainability. Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper No. 14010. Google Scholar
Dunne, P., Moore, M., & Portes, R. (2006). European Government Bond Markets: transparency, liquidity, efficiency. London: London Business School and CEPR, Centre for Economic Policy Research. Google Scholar
Fakhry, B., & Richter, C. (2015). Is the Sovereign Debt Market Efficient? Evidence from the US and German Sovereign Debt Markets. International Economics and Economic Policy, 12(3), 339-357. Google Scholar
Fakhry, B., Masood, O., & Bellalah, M. (2016). The Efficiency of the GIPS Sovereign Debt Markets during Crisis. International Journal of Business, 21(1), 87-98. Google Scholar
Fama, E.F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. Google Scholar
Ferreira, P. (2018). Efficiency or speculation? A time-varying analysis of European sovereign debt. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 490, 1295-1308. Google Scholar
Grauwe, P. de, & Ji, Y. (2015). Market sentiments and the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. FinMaP – Working Paper, 28. Google Scholar
Hartwell, Ch. (2018). The hierarchy of institutions reconsidered: Monetary policy and its effect on the rule of law in interwar Poland. Explorations in Economic History, 68, 37-70. Google Scholar
Hochberg, Y. (1974). Some conservative generalizations of the T-method in simultaneous inference. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 4, 224-234. Google Scholar
Hoogduin, L. (2011). Economic and Monetary Union and Sovereign Debt Crisis. Lecture for the Masters Course European Union Studies of Leiden University, 23 February, Den Haag. Google Scholar
Investments (1998). 6th edition. Sharpe, W.F., Alexander, J.G., Bayiley, J.V. (Eds.). London: Prentice Hall International. Google Scholar
Katz, S. (1974). The price and adjustment process of bonds to rating reclassifications: a test of bonds market efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 29(2), 551-559. Google Scholar
Kodres, L.E. (2010). The Uses and Abuses of Sovereign Credit Ratings. Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). Washington: International Monetary Fund. Google Scholar
Liu, C., & He, J. (1991). A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates. Journal of Finance, 46(2), 773-785. Google Scholar
Lo, A.W., & MacKinlay, A.C. (1988). Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test. The Review of Financial Studies, 1(1), 41-66. Google Scholar
Nelson, Ch., & Plosser, Ch. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162. Google Scholar
Our global neighbourhood: The report of the Commission on Global Governance. (1995). Oxford–New York: Oxford University Press. Google Scholar
Shiller, R.J. (1979). The volatility of long-term interest rates and expectations models of the term structure. Journal of Political Economy, 87(6), 1190-1219. Google Scholar
Shiller, R.J. (1998). Human Behavior and Efficiency of the Financial System. NBER Working Paper, 6375. Google Scholar
Sims, Ch.A. (2003). Implications of rational inattention. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 665-690. Google Scholar
Stooq. Serwis finansowy. Retrieved from stooq.pl (20.07.2019). Google Scholar
Structure of government debt in 2014. (2015). Eurostat, 11. Google Scholar
Teixeria, J., & Afonso A. (1998). Non Linear Tests of Weakly Efficient Markets: Evidence from Governent Bond Markets in the Euro Area. Separata 3 Dos Cadernos Do Mercado De Valores Mobiliarios. Google Scholar
The Economics of Money. (2001). Mishkin, F.S. (Ed.). Boston: Banking and Financial Markets, Addison-Wesley. Google Scholar
Waszkiewicz, G. (2015). Political Risk and National Debt Markets in Advanced Economies. Conference Paper. Proceedings of FIKUSZ ‘15, Obuda University, p. 263-275. Google Scholar
Waszkiewicz, G. (2017). Political risk on financial markets in developed and developing economies. Journal of Economics and Management, 28(2), 112-132. Google Scholar
Worthington, A., & Higgs, H. (2006). Weak-form Market Efficiency in Asian Emerging and Developed Equity Markets: Comparative Tests of Random Walk Behaviour. University of Wollongong. Working Papers Series, 19(1), 54-63. Google Scholar
Wyplosz, C. (2011). Debt Sustainability Assessment: Mission Imposible. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2(3). Google Scholar
Zivot, E., & Anders, D. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44. Google Scholar
Zunino, L., Bariviera, A.F., Belén Guercio, M., Martinez, L.B., & Rosso, O.A. (2012). On The Efficiency Of Sovereign Bond Markets. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 391(18), 4342-4349. Google Scholar
Military University of Technology in Warsaw
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8783-6972
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
An Author declares that his paper has not been published before (under the same or another title, or is a part of another publication) and does not infringe copyrights of other persons**. At the same time, the Author transfers to the Publisher the exclusive right to publish and to circulate this work in print in the form of a non-serial journal publication and in a form of an electronic publication.
The journal is available on Creative Common license CC-BY-NC-ND